***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 24.0 24.4 22.9 1.4 77.0 64.6 21.6 23.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.2 23.2 1.6 74.0 66.2 21.9 23.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.2 25.6 23.2 1.4 73.7 64.4 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.0 20.3 1.3 72.6 63.7 15.4 16.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.8 21.3 1.2 71.4 62.2 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.3 25.3 19.4 1.3 68.8 63.5 21.7 23.9 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.3 23.2 1.6 73.2 66.6 21.4 23.1 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.3 19.4 1.1 69.2 61.3 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.5 22.0 1.3 72.9 63.6 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 25.2 24.7 20.4 1.2 71.2 62.2 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.7 21.4 1.2 71.3 61.8 22.3 24.3 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.5 24.6 20.4 1.1 69.7 61.4 21.5 23.2 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.0 20.8 1.2 68.6 62.2 22.6 24.8 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 25.4 25.5 21.7 1.3 68.8 62.7 21.9 24.0 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 25.2 26.0 22.6 1.7 78.3 69.8 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.6 21.0 1.3 71.7 62.3 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.4 22.9 1.8 74.3 67.9 21.5 22.6 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.1 24.1 19.7 1.3 69.9 62.1 21.1 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 25.0 25.8 23.3 1.6 74.9 66.1 21.8 23.2 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.6 20.5 17.6 1.2 67.4 61.5 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.5 22.8 1.3 72.4 62.9 22.2 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.0 25.6 22.8 1.6 74.3 66.1 21.8 23.4 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 25.3 26.5 23.4 1.7 76.8 66.8 21.9 23.4 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 25.0 25.0 21.7 1.4 70.9 63.3 21.7 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.6 21.6 1.3 75.9 63.8 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.0 19.8 0.9 64.4 59.9 22.9 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.8 25.6 22.3 1.4 76.8 65.3 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 25.4 25.7 21.3 1.5 74.6 65.7 22.8 24.3 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 20.0 19.7 19.0 1.3 68.3 61.8 17.2 18.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 24.8 25.0 23.1 1.5 74.0 65.5 21.6 23.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------