***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 26.1 27.9 27.0 3.6 88.4 85.6 21.8 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 26.5 28.2 27.7 4.2 91.6 88.2 23.0 24.7 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 26.0 27.0 27.3 3.6 85.9 85.0 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 19.7 20.2 23.7 3.2 83.2 81.8 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 26.8 27.0 24.9 3.0 80.2 80.0 23.0 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 25.8 26.1 22.0 2.1 76.7 74.6 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 26.2 27.5 27.6 4.2 92.0 88.5 22.9 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 15.1 15.1 22.0 2.1 73.0 72.6 12.3 14.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 26.5 27.0 26.0 3.3 81.7 81.9 23.0 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 26.1 26.4 23.6 2.7 77.5 77.1 23.3 24.6 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 26.5 26.7 25.0 2.7 78.1 77.7 23.4 25.2 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 25.6 25.6 23.1 2.1 73.8 73.2 22.3 24.8 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 27.4 27.5 24.3 2.4 77.2 76.1 23.7 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 26.1 27.4 25.9 3.6 83.6 83.3 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 27.0 27.8 26.9 3.8 86.9 87.0 23.2 25.4 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 27.5 27.7 24.4 2.7 79.1 77.9 23.6 26.3 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 25.7 27.9 27.5 4.6 94.6 90.5 21.6 23.6 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 25.3 25.6 22.7 2.8 77.6 77.4 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 25.9 27.8 27.8 4.2 91.8 88.5 23.2 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 21.1 21.2 20.0 2.0 72.3 71.9 18.2 20.2 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 26.3 26.7 26.9 3.4 83.1 83.1 23.1 25.0 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 25.9 28.5 27.4 4.4 93.3 90.3 22.7 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 26.1 28.1 27.9 4.4 92.6 90.0 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 25.9 26.2 25.6 3.4 81.3 81.7 22.9 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 26.1 27.7 25.8 3.5 88.7 84.8 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 26.6 26.3 22.2 1.6 69.9 68.7 24.1 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 26.1 28.0 26.4 3.7 90.5 86.6 22.3 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 27.3 27.6 25.0 3.3 83.1 82.7 23.7 25.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 21.0 21.2 21.9 2.6 77.1 76.5 17.5 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 26.1 27.7 27.5 3.9 89.2 86.8 23.2 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------