***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 11.3 11.7 13.7 1.0 78.2 68.8 9.6 10.1 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.1 13.4 1.2 80.1 72.6 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 13.5 13.9 13.9 1.1 78.5 71.1 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 8.9 9.8 11.1 1.2 84.2 73.8 7.4 8.0 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.1 11.6 1.0 77.2 70.6 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 9.4 10.0 9.4 1.0 77.4 69.7 7.8 8.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 11.5 12.0 13.5 1.2 80.7 71.7 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 5.4 5.6 9.5 1.0 78.5 72.0 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 11.5 11.9 11.8 1.0 78.4 71.0 9.9 10.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 11.1 11.5 10.4 1.1 80.0 72.3 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 10.7 11.0 11.1 1.0 78.1 71.5 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.3 9.5 10.2 0.9 74.3 69.7 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 10.0 10.1 9.7 0.7 68.3 64.8 8.5 9.1 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 11.7 12.1 11.7 1.0 77.0 70.7 9.8 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.4 12.1 12.5 1.3 85.6 76.7 10.2 10.6 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 11.4 11.8 10.5 0.9 76.5 69.7 9.8 10.5 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 11.6 12.0 13.2 1.3 82.2 74.5 9.8 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.3 9.8 1.1 79.7 72.0 8.4 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 11.5 12.0 13.5 1.3 80.5 73.4 9.6 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.2 7.9 0.9 76.7 69.0 4.9 5.4 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 11.0 11.4 13.1 1.0 78.0 69.9 9.4 9.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.2 13.3 1.4 82.5 75.3 8.8 9.5 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.9 11.6 13.6 1.3 81.5 74.6 9.3 9.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 11.0 11.4 11.7 1.1 78.2 72.3 9.2 9.9 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 11.8 12.1 12.6 1.0 76.0 68.7 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.3 9.3 0.6 65.7 63.3 8.8 9.2 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.4 13.1 1.0 77.0 68.7 9.7 10.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.8 10.5 11.4 1.2 82.6 74.1 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.5 9.2 1.0 77.0 70.9 7.6 8.5 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.2 13.6 1.2 79.4 71.6 9.9 10.9 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------