***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.0 11.2 -0.1 49.1 49.4 8.2 9.1 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 8.0 9.7 10.8 -0.1 53.8 49.3 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.5 11.3 0.0 52.6 50.0 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.5 8.4 -0.1 48.9 48.9 5.9 6.6 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.8 8.4 8.8 -0.1 49.7 48.8 7.2 8.4 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.9 7.2 6.9 -0.1 47.8 48.6 6.2 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 8.0 9.3 10.9 -0.1 50.4 48.8 8.4 9.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.1 7.1 0.1 54.6 50.9 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 8.5 9.6 9.2 0.0 48.0 49.6 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.0 7.9 0.0 51.4 50.1 7.7 8.8 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 7.3 8.9 8.2 0.0 52.1 49.1 7.0 8.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.1 7.7 7.6 0.0 52.3 49.6 6.0 7.6 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 6.1 7.9 6.9 -0.2 45.0 46.7 6.7 8.0 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.0 9.2 0.0 54.3 50.7 8.5 9.5 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 8.1 10.0 9.6 0.0 48.3 49.4 8.7 10.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 7.7 8.8 7.6 -0.1 46.7 47.9 8.1 9.2 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.7 10.6 -0.1 55.4 49.5 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.4 7.3 0.0 49.7 49.9 6.6 8.4 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 8.2 9.7 10.8 0.0 54.2 50.0 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 5.4 0.0 50.4 49.6 2.8 4.1 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.6 10.5 -0.1 48.4 49.4 7.8 8.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.7 10.5 0.0 55.1 50.0 7.7 8.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.4 10.8 0.1 56.2 51.4 7.9 9.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.7 9.0 0.0 53.3 50.3 7.5 8.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.8 9.9 -0.1 48.8 48.8 8.5 9.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 6.6 7.6 6.8 -0.1 44.0 48.0 7.1 7.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.4 10.5 10.6 -0.1 48.5 48.9 8.4 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.1 8.4 8.6 -0.1 47.6 48.9 7.0 8.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.7 6.8 0.0 51.0 49.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.4 9.9 11.0 -0.1 52.5 49.6 8.8 9.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------