***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.6 12.3 0.2 54.5 53.2 8.9 9.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.5 12.0 0.4 58.4 56.0 8.8 10.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.2 12.5 0.4 56.9 55.3 10.7 11.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 9.9 0.4 59.1 56.2 5.7 7.0 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.4 10.1 0.3 58.1 55.2 8.3 9.0 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.4 8.4 0.4 57.5 57.0 7.2 8.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 12.1 0.4 57.1 55.1 8.9 9.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.9 8.3 0.3 54.7 54.7 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.0 10.3 0.3 56.4 54.5 8.9 9.7 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.9 9.7 9.0 0.3 55.7 54.9 9.2 9.6 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.6 9.6 0.4 59.7 56.4 8.3 9.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.5 8.8 0.2 55.3 54.1 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.2 55.7 53.0 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.5 10.4 0.3 56.2 55.2 9.1 10.3 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.9 11.1 0.7 61.5 59.5 8.7 10.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.4 9.0 0.4 59.2 55.7 9.6 10.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.4 11.9 0.5 59.9 56.9 8.7 9.9 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.7 8.5 0.3 55.8 54.7 7.5 8.4 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.3 12.1 0.4 57.6 56.3 8.7 9.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.0 6.5 0.2 52.3 52.9 3.9 4.8 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 11.6 0.2 55.6 53.0 8.8 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.6 11.8 0.5 56.8 57.3 8.0 9.3 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.5 9.7 12.1 0.4 57.3 56.4 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.8 10.2 0.4 57.5 55.9 8.7 9.7 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.1 10.9 0.1 53.1 51.8 9.1 9.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.7 8.1 0.1 51.6 50.9 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 11.6 0.2 53.9 52.5 8.5 9.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.1 10.2 0.6 61.2 58.4 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.6 8.0 0.3 54.7 54.5 6.7 7.4 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.8 12.2 0.4 57.2 55.5 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------