***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.3 14.6 1.8 76.9 74.1 9.8 10.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.7 14.2 1.9 78.6 75.2 10.0 10.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.6 14.8 1.8 77.4 75.3 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.1 12.0 1.7 82.3 75.2 7.1 8.3 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.8 12.7 1.6 77.1 73.4 9.0 9.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.3 11.1 10.5 1.7 79.9 74.8 8.3 9.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.7 14.3 1.8 78.3 74.5 10.1 11.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.2 10.5 1.7 76.2 74.1 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.5 12.9 1.7 79.6 75.0 10.0 11.0 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.8 12.2 11.4 1.7 76.4 74.3 10.0 10.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.3 11.8 12.3 1.6 77.2 74.4 9.8 10.1 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.2 11.4 1.7 76.6 73.5 8.2 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.7 11.2 1.6 77.6 73.2 8.8 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 12.3 12.7 12.8 1.8 78.9 74.7 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 12.1 12.8 13.7 1.8 86.8 78.6 10.9 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.5 11.8 1.7 77.7 73.5 10.6 11.1 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.5 14.0 1.9 80.5 76.2 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 10.9 11.4 10.8 1.7 75.9 74.2 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 12.1 12.3 14.3 1.9 78.8 75.9 10.1 11.2 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.4 8.9 1.7 74.6 72.7 5.1 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.6 14.1 1.7 77.2 74.3 9.6 10.3 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 11.5 12.3 14.1 1.9 81.4 76.9 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 11.9 12.5 14.5 2.0 80.2 77.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.6 12.8 1.8 78.2 75.5 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.2 13.6 1.7 76.5 72.9 10.1 11.2 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.4 10.6 1.6 75.7 71.2 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 13.1 14.0 14.1 1.7 76.7 73.4 10.2 10.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 10.7 11.6 12.4 1.7 83.0 76.1 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.7 9.7 10.2 1.7 74.3 73.9 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.1 14.5 1.8 78.2 75.0 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------