***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 13.4 13.9 16.6 2.3 87.1 84.9 11.2 11.9 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 13.4 14.3 16.6 2.7 91.0 89.9 10.4 11.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.2 16.8 2.4 85.2 85.2 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 11.3 12.8 14.1 2.7 92.6 89.6 7.8 9.8 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 11.9 12.4 14.7 2.2 85.2 84.3 10.0 10.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.5 10.9 11.6 1.7 83.3 80.7 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 13.7 14.3 16.6 2.7 89.9 89.2 10.8 11.7 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 7.3 7.7 12.2 2.1 86.7 84.6 4.7 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 13.3 13.6 14.7 2.0 84.4 84.0 11.1 11.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 12.8 13.3 13.2 2.3 86.8 85.7 10.7 11.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 11.9 12.2 14.3 2.1 85.4 84.0 10.0 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.0 13.0 1.8 84.0 81.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 10.6 11.0 12.4 1.2 71.6 69.4 9.3 9.8 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 13.5 13.8 14.5 2.0 83.4 82.4 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 13.2 15.2 15.8 2.6 94.4 91.7 11.2 11.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 13.1 13.5 13.5 1.9 81.1 80.2 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 13.8 15.3 16.5 3.0 96.5 93.4 11.0 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 11.3 12.3 12.7 2.3 86.4 85.5 9.2 9.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 13.5 14.1 16.7 2.8 89.8 89.7 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 7.5 8.0 10.6 2.0 84.5 82.6 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 12.6 13.2 16.1 2.2 85.5 84.6 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 13.0 13.8 16.8 3.1 94.1 92.5 9.8 10.6 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 12.9 13.4 16.9 2.9 89.0 89.8 10.1 11.3 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 13.1 13.4 14.7 2.2 84.8 83.9 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 13.1 13.8 15.9 2.3 85.8 84.7 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.2 11.5 1.0 69.7 68.5 9.7 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 13.7 14.8 16.2 2.3 86.2 84.9 10.5 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 11.2 12.7 14.3 2.4 91.2 88.3 9.2 10.0 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 11.1 11.6 11.8 2.1 85.0 84.2 7.8 9.6 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 13.9 14.2 16.8 2.6 88.0 87.8 11.1 12.0 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------