***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 53.8 54.3 43.0 97.8 56.5 51.3 34.3 51.3 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 46.9 46.9 43.6 101.1 56.0 51.3 33.5 41.3 53.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 52.7 56.5 43.0 99.3 55.4 51.7 39.1 50.0 61.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 44.7 63.1 39.3 85.6 48.0 45.0 50.9 65.9 81.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 50.3 47.1 39.3 91.3 52.6 47.6 34.4 44.8 61.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.1 33.7 36.7 75.3 43.6 40.1 30.9 38.5 53.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 46.5 47.0 43.4 100.8 55.7 51.4 31.6 41.8 53.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 77.5 69.0 45.0 87.8 47.7 45.3 50.1 71.9 84.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 49.1 47.1 40.7 92.0 52.8 47.7 36.4 44.9 56.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 55.3 49.9 45.5 89.3 49.7 45.8 43.1 49.9 54.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 52.7 44.5 38.2 86.5 48.4 45.5 25.3 45.7 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 51.9 42.1 37.9 86.6 47.7 45.4 26.0 44.8 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 51.1 42.8 38.0 83.0 46.3 43.5 35.2 44.2 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 73.8 71.6 58.3 105.1 59.2 53.7 44.1 66.9 78.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 29.9 42.9 35.7 82.8 49.4 44.5 29.1 43.1 60.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 41.5 36.1 36.5 82.8 45.5 43.9 32.3 37.2 49.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 45.5 48.2 48.0 104.8 60.0 51.8 35.5 41.9 53.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 61.6 54.5 51.9 93.4 50.6 47.6 42.9 54.5 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 50.6 51.1 44.5 102.3 56.1 52.4 34.5 46.9 57.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 62.9 59.9 59.2 94.4 51.6 48.5 46.9 57.0 76.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 55.9 57.5 40.9 94.1 53.3 48.7 37.7 52.2 64.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 49.4 53.4 50.5 105.7 58.9 52.7 34.6 43.8 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 48.9 51.6 47.4 106.5 59.0 55.1 37.2 47.0 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 62.3 60.9 49.5 97.5 53.9 50.4 45.1 57.7 69.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 60.0 58.1 46.3 97.4 55.2 50.6 45.8 56.5 63.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 29.2 37.7 37.7 85.2 48.3 45.2 27.0 40.1 59.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 56.5 52.2 46.1 98.0 55.9 51.6 33.0 50.5 64.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 30.3 45.8 35.5 81.1 47.0 43.5 35.5 46.4 58.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 88.3 77.9 56.1 95.5 51.8 48.4 64.3 75.3 92.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 45.6 44.5 42.5 99.1 55.1 51.3 29.7 42.3 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------