***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 8.4 11.4 107.4 69.0 52.6 1.4 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 10.6 11.7 106.1 67.0 53.8 0.2 3.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.1 15.8 11.8 111.0 68.2 53.7 1.7 3.8 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.3 21.2 11.0 100.0 67.3 50.2 6.4 12.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 16.7 10.7 100.8 67.3 50.9 3.9 8.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.8 10.3 84.1 60.4 49.3 1.3 4.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.1 11.6 107.2 67.7 53.6 0.2 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 19.1 12.3 96.2 63.1 50.5 5.9 10.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.3 15.6 11.3 103.6 68.0 52.4 2.8 9.3 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.2 17.2 12.5 99.7 65.9 51.4 2.5 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.2 13.9 10.3 96.2 65.9 50.6 1.6 4.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.2 9.9 89.3 60.9 49.4 2.8 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.5 5.7 9.8 83.3 56.3 48.2 2.6 5.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.3 14.7 105.2 66.9 52.9 3.8 7.2 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.5 11.0 100.4 66.6 51.8 2.4 10.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.6 9.2 82.9 59.6 48.0 1.4 4.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.4 12.6 104.6 66.8 52.9 0.3 6.1 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 17.9 13.5 97.3 63.2 52.0 2.4 12.1 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.9 11.2 11.7 106.4 66.6 53.6 1.5 3.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.8 16.7 98.7 61.6 51.9 7.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.9 11.2 105.5 68.4 52.7 1.7 10.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.7 12.8 101.6 64.3 52.6 0.4 6.2 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.2 11.6 11.8 105.9 66.7 53.3 0.8 4.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.1 13.2 105.7 65.5 52.8 2.0 8.9 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.2 11.7 104.3 67.2 52.5 1.0 6.0 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.2 8.3 9.9 84.1 62.3 48.7 2.5 5.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 8.6 11.4 102.6 66.5 52.0 1.5 5.2 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.2 17.5 10.2 93.9 65.1 50.1 2.3 10.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 22.4 14.3 95.8 61.5 51.8 6.6 15.5 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.8 11.4 105.8 67.0 53.7 0.3 4.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------