***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 10.1 9.7 82.8 60.6 48.2 2.2 4.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.9 10.5 93.1 61.3 45.1 1.3 5.2 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.2 9.8 85.4 59.8 48.9 3.6 5.9 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.0 17.4 9.0 74.9 58.0 48.8 2.5 14.1 24.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.1 8.8 77.6 61.1 49.5 2.6 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 7.4 8.6 68.7 51.2 46.1 2.4 7.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 7.7 10.4 91.7 60.6 46.8 2.1 3.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.3 15.7 10.1 80.4 58.3 49.7 6.9 14.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.9 9.4 79.8 61.6 49.0 2.2 7.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.2 10.4 80.5 59.0 48.8 3.3 12.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.8 15.0 8.5 76.4 60.7 49.6 3.4 11.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.1 7.3 8.4 76.5 57.2 49.7 4.1 5.5 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.8 9.8 8.5 72.7 56.4 48.7 2.2 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.9 14.3 13.8 93.8 61.1 47.9 5.7 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.0 8.6 77.0 60.6 50.3 0.9 5.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.6 8.1 70.6 57.0 48.0 3.4 9.0 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.7 10.8 92.0 60.1 44.3 1.6 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.4 11.8 82.7 58.2 48.0 4.2 8.0 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.6 10.5 92.9 60.5 45.7 4.9 6.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.7 12.8 80.1 56.6 48.5 4.5 11.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.3 8.9 77.8 60.0 48.6 3.3 6.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.2 7.4 11.0 89.2 58.9 43.8 1.2 2.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 11.1 94.9 60.8 47.9 4.6 8.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.3 11.7 87.3 59.9 47.7 3.3 8.8 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.1 9.6 78.4 60.2 48.6 4.3 7.4 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.3 8.3 75.5 56.8 48.8 1.3 6.0 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.1 13.0 10.2 83.0 60.1 48.2 2.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 8.5 73.3 58.7 49.4 2.4 7.3 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.5 20.4 12.6 84.4 57.4 48.1 9.7 14.8 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.7 10.2 90.0 60.9 46.9 1.9 5.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------