***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.4 10.2 94.3 61.4 49.6 1.1 7.8 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.7 10.1 95.1 63.0 49.5 2.2 7.8 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.8 10.3 95.9 60.3 51.4 2.8 8.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.4 9.2 81.9 61.9 47.8 1.5 4.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.5 9.5 88.4 63.6 47.7 0.4 4.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.6 74.8 57.4 43.8 3.5 7.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.0 10.3 97.2 62.0 49.9 2.4 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.8 11.4 10.6 83.8 58.0 46.8 2.1 8.7 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.4 10.0 90.4 61.6 48.2 1.3 3.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.2 11.0 87.7 59.3 47.5 2.5 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.9 10.1 87.1 60.3 47.8 0.4 3.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.4 9.5 84.8 59.9 47.0 0.2 5.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.0 9.9 83.3 61.6 46.3 1.4 6.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.5 21.9 13.3 96.4 60.0 51.9 2.1 13.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.5 8.5 76.7 65.7 48.5 0.2 1.9 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.9 9.6 83.2 61.5 46.8 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.1 12.0 104.4 65.8 50.8 2.7 5.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.0 12.2 89.3 55.9 47.3 1.2 7.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.8 10.3 96.0 63.7 50.6 1.8 5.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.2 14.4 94.4 57.6 50.0 0.4 10.4 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.4 10.0 90.7 60.9 48.5 2.9 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.5 12.8 110.3 69.6 51.7 1.8 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.4 15.5 11.3 101.2 63.8 53.3 2.9 9.1 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.1 11.4 88.9 55.9 48.3 3.6 8.9 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.3 12.4 11.3 91.6 63.6 48.4 2.3 4.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.5 9.3 79.6 60.1 45.0 0.9 7.2 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 9.3 11.3 94.1 62.4 48.9 1.7 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.8 9.3 8.7 79.0 62.8 47.7 0.4 1.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 17.9 13.1 89.6 55.6 47.0 5.8 15.5 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.7 9.5 90.1 60.9 48.0 1.2 6.2 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------