***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.1 23.0 11.7 108.1 66.8 61.8 2.8 7.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 14.9 16.5 11.3 110.8 69.7 62.5 2.8 9.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 9.4 21.0 11.1 106.1 68.2 62.0 0.9 6.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.0 10.1 86.7 60.0 52.5 1.6 8.3 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.1 15.2 10.2 99.5 64.2 56.0 1.4 11.2 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.7 5.3 8.2 73.6 54.9 45.6 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 8.7 13.5 11.0 107.9 68.7 62.7 3.4 6.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 21.7 20.5 12.0 91.4 58.1 52.2 9.8 19.3 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.5 17.1 10.0 95.1 61.1 54.2 4.0 11.2 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.6 11.5 90.0 58.0 51.7 4.9 11.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.3 12.4 9.3 86.5 61.2 53.0 1.7 9.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.1 13.7 10.2 96.7 63.3 55.5 2.6 8.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.1 12.8 9.7 94.2 64.6 55.1 2.0 5.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 11.5 25.5 16.4 127.3 70.7 65.5 3.3 7.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.4 4.3 7.6 76.3 60.0 49.9 1.3 2.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.6 9.6 96.0 64.8 54.5 3.2 5.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 19.1 23.2 12.6 119.9 72.4 64.5 1.7 10.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 15.5 18.6 14.4 105.2 61.2 56.4 5.5 12.6 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 16.2 15.9 11.9 114.8 70.5 63.8 2.5 8.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.8 15.3 105.6 60.0 55.6 7.0 13.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 18.0 18.1 10.8 104.0 63.8 58.8 2.5 15.8 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 17.9 23.5 13.9 123.9 72.4 66.1 1.5 7.9 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 16.1 20.9 13.2 125.6 72.9 67.1 4.2 7.5 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 11.6 19.0 13.2 109.5 65.8 60.6 3.9 9.4 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.5 30.9 13.7 116.7 69.9 63.4 2.0 12.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.2 9.5 10.2 104.8 67.5 58.8 1.0 4.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 9.9 26.7 13.2 113.5 69.8 63.1 0.9 5.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.6 8.2 78.2 58.8 49.5 0.8 6.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.7 24.1 16.1 113.6 64.1 58.5 10.0 16.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 17.9 18.1 11.4 111.4 69.8 62.9 5.4 10.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------