***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.2 22.2 -0.2 48.7 47.9 21.7 22.3 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.1 22.5 21.8 -0.6 41.3 43.0 22.0 22.8 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.9 22.5 -0.1 49.7 49.8 22.3 22.9 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.6 21.0 1.2 73.9 67.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.9 21.3 0.5 58.2 57.2 22.4 23.4 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 23.4 23.4 19.6 0.8 64.9 61.6 21.8 22.6 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.0 21.8 -0.6 41.7 43.0 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 19.6 0.4 59.3 56.7 11.7 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.6 21.9 0.5 59.8 57.8 22.6 23.0 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.0 20.4 0.4 58.2 56.1 21.9 22.6 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.9 21.5 0.6 60.1 58.4 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.6 20.8 0.7 63.3 60.1 21.7 22.8 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.1 24.4 20.8 0.5 57.7 57.9 22.9 23.9 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.1 22.6 20.7 -0.5 42.9 43.6 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 24.2 24.5 22.7 1.5 78.9 73.1 22.2 23.2 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.0 21.3 0.8 64.4 61.4 23.2 24.3 25.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.3 21.6 21.3 -0.8 37.8 39.4 21.4 22.0 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.2 19.6 0.1 53.7 52.3 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.2 22.1 -0.5 43.4 44.8 21.6 22.5 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 17.4 18.5 17.3 0.0 51.2 51.1 17.9 18.5 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.2 22.2 0.1 52.6 51.8 22.1 23.1 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.1 21.0 -1.1 33.3 34.4 22.1 22.6 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.6 22.3 -0.2 48.5 49.1 21.9 22.8 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.1 0.0 51.8 51.1 22.1 22.8 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.6 20.9 0.0 50.7 50.3 21.8 22.6 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 24.4 24.5 20.4 0.8 66.2 62.1 22.6 23.3 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.4 21.4 -0.3 46.4 46.9 21.8 22.9 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.4 24.8 21.8 1.4 76.9 70.5 22.1 23.2 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.7 17.8 18.6 -0.1 49.2 48.8 17.0 17.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.2 22.0 -0.5 43.0 44.5 21.6 22.6 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------