***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.6 21.1 20.2 0.1 47.9 49.6 20.2 21.1 21.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.0 19.9 -0.2 46.5 47.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.4 20.7 0.3 51.4 51.5 20.5 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.9 19.1 1.2 63.8 60.0 12.7 13.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.2 19.5 0.8 58.0 56.1 20.4 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.2 17.9 1.0 63.2 58.3 20.1 20.4 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.9 -0.1 47.4 47.7 20.5 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.1 18.1 0.9 59.7 56.9 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.0 22.1 19.8 0.7 56.6 55.2 20.0 21.6 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.8 18.8 0.8 58.1 56.0 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.5 19.5 1.0 61.4 57.6 20.2 21.9 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.9 19.2 1.0 62.9 58.2 19.2 21.1 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.7 18.7 0.9 62.1 57.2 20.7 22.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.4 18.9 0.0 46.9 48.9 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 21.4 22.8 19.8 1.4 65.7 62.1 19.0 20.8 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.1 19.4 1.2 64.7 58.9 21.5 22.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.5 19.5 -0.3 45.5 46.6 20.1 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.1 18.3 0.6 55.3 54.4 18.9 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.9 21.1 20.2 -0.1 48.0 48.5 20.2 21.3 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.2 15.9 0.5 54.8 54.2 16.2 17.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.9 21.8 20.2 0.4 53.1 52.6 20.0 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.1 21.1 19.3 -0.5 43.9 45.3 20.5 21.9 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.5 20.4 0.1 50.5 50.2 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.0 19.4 0.5 54.6 53.1 20.5 22.0 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.2 20.7 18.9 0.3 51.3 51.5 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.5 18.8 1.1 65.0 59.3 20.4 21.4 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.5 0.1 48.2 49.4 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 21.6 22.8 19.5 1.4 66.7 61.6 19.7 21.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 52.5 53.1 14.8 17.4 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.9 21.2 20.1 -0.1 47.0 48.2 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------