***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.0 21.7 0.0 51.2 50.1 20.3 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.7 21.6 -0.1 49.5 50.2 20.8 21.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.1 22.2 0.2 52.5 52.1 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 20.7 1.1 60.8 59.4 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.6 20.8 0.5 52.6 53.9 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.6 22.0 19.0 0.7 55.6 55.4 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 21.8 21.1 21.5 -0.1 49.8 49.8 20.4 21.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.7 19.3 0.6 52.6 54.5 10.4 11.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.2 21.1 0.5 53.0 53.4 21.1 21.9 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.7 20.0 0.5 51.1 53.2 20.4 21.6 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.7 20.7 0.6 53.3 54.3 21.2 22.4 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 22.5 22.3 20.5 0.8 55.3 56.1 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.7 19.9 0.7 54.4 55.6 21.4 22.4 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.1 22.3 20.2 -0.1 47.2 49.4 20.7 22.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.0 21.5 1.3 62.4 61.7 20.7 22.1 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.0 23.4 20.7 0.8 56.5 56.7 21.9 22.7 24.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 21.7 20.7 21.2 -0.2 48.1 49.0 20.1 21.1 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.1 19.4 0.4 51.8 52.5 19.6 21.0 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.6 21.8 0.0 50.0 50.9 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.7 17.1 0.4 51.7 53.3 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.3 21.6 0.2 53.4 51.7 21.0 21.9 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 22.3 21.1 21.0 -0.4 46.8 47.7 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.7 22.0 0.2 51.1 51.8 20.7 21.7 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.1 20.7 0.3 51.8 52.3 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.5 20.3 0.2 52.6 51.5 20.2 21.3 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.7 20.3 1.1 59.1 59.4 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 20.9 -0.1 50.6 49.7 20.5 21.1 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.3 21.1 1.2 61.0 60.2 20.4 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.0 18.4 0.2 49.8 51.5 15.2 17.0 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.3 21.7 0.0 50.8 50.3 20.4 21.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------