***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.3 22.4 -0.9 40.7 41.8 22.0 22.9 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.1 22.0 -1.3 35.4 38.0 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 21.6 23.0 22.6 -0.8 41.4 42.9 22.4 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.2 21.2 0.6 58.9 56.4 15.7 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.6 21.5 -0.2 47.9 48.9 23.3 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.7 19.5 -0.1 46.8 49.8 21.7 23.8 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.2 22.0 21.9 -1.3 36.3 38.2 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.4 12.9 19.5 -0.3 43.7 48.2 11.9 13.4 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.0 22.2 -0.1 49.9 49.4 23.1 24.0 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.3 20.5 -0.3 45.8 48.0 22.2 23.7 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.1 21.7 -0.1 46.5 49.1 22.7 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.8 20.8 -0.1 46.2 50.1 22.2 24.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.2 20.9 -0.3 43.6 47.8 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 21.5 22.0 20.8 -1.2 34.9 39.5 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.0 23.3 1.0 63.6 61.2 22.6 24.4 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.3 25.5 21.4 0.0 48.4 50.5 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 20.8 21.3 21.2 -1.6 31.4 34.8 21.3 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 20.8 22.3 19.5 -0.5 40.7 46.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 21.5 22.3 22.2 -1.2 36.9 39.4 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 17.4 18.3 17.3 -0.6 38.3 45.7 17.5 19.5 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.7 23.4 22.5 -0.6 43.7 45.0 22.8 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.6 21.0 -1.9 27.8 32.1 22.0 22.8 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 21.1 22.6 22.4 -0.8 40.4 43.0 22.2 22.8 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.3 21.2 -0.6 40.2 44.6 22.0 23.4 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 21.7 23.1 21.2 -0.7 44.0 43.8 22.5 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.4 24.7 20.4 0.0 47.6 50.7 22.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.5 21.6 -0.9 40.2 41.0 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.1 22.2 0.8 60.3 58.5 22.8 24.7 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 16.4 18.3 18.5 -0.8 37.9 44.1 17.5 19.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.3 22.2 22.2 -1.2 36.4 39.6 22.1 22.9 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------