***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.0 24.4 -0.1 48.8 48.9 21.7 25.1 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.9 23.3 23.9 -0.8 39.3 40.7 22.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.6 24.6 0.0 49.9 49.5 22.8 25.6 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 19.1 19.7 23.1 1.7 72.8 69.4 15.0 17.7 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 26.4 26.4 23.6 0.7 57.2 57.7 23.2 26.2 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 25.4 25.7 22.1 1.6 67.6 67.0 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.5 22.8 23.8 -0.7 39.4 40.8 22.4 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.6 21.3 0.6 56.8 56.5 12.5 14.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 26.0 26.4 24.6 0.9 59.4 60.2 22.8 25.8 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 25.4 25.4 22.5 0.6 56.8 56.7 22.8 25.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 25.6 26.4 23.9 0.8 58.0 58.6 22.9 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.5 22.7 0.9 60.7 60.3 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 26.3 26.6 23.6 0.8 57.8 58.9 23.5 26.0 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.3 22.7 -0.7 40.1 43.1 23.3 24.8 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 26.9 27.4 26.1 2.5 83.7 78.5 22.9 26.0 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 26.6 27.6 23.7 1.1 62.6 62.4 24.0 26.4 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.1 23.2 -1.1 35.5 36.5 21.9 24.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.7 21.0 0.0 49.3 50.3 22.5 23.7 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 23.5 24.1 -0.6 42.4 42.9 22.3 25.1 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.4 19.9 18.9 -0.3 44.9 47.4 18.5 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.9 25.8 24.7 0.2 52.9 52.9 22.8 25.7 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 21.0 22.5 22.6 -1.7 29.0 30.3 22.7 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.1 24.5 -0.1 50.5 48.7 22.7 25.0 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.2 23.2 0.0 50.1 50.0 22.6 25.1 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.2 23.3 0.0 49.5 50.4 22.0 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.9 22.4 1.0 63.2 61.9 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.9 23.6 -0.2 45.8 47.3 22.2 25.1 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.3 24.5 2.2 78.4 74.6 23.3 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.6 18.6 20.0 -0.5 43.1 45.6 18.1 19.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.3 23.3 24.1 -0.6 42.0 42.6 22.6 25.0 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------