***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.3 12.9 -0.1 47.5 48.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.4 9.9 12.3 -0.4 40.7 42.0 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.6 13.0 -0.1 48.1 49.2 12.0 12.7 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.4 10.4 0.1 51.5 52.9 7.7 8.3 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.5 10.9 0.1 50.8 52.5 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.6 8.9 0.3 56.1 56.3 7.9 8.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.3 12.5 -0.3 41.2 44.4 9.8 10.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.5 8.5 -0.1 44.7 47.9 4.1 4.7 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.6 11.0 0.1 53.4 53.2 10.0 10.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.0 9.3 -0.1 46.2 48.8 9.4 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.9 10.3 0.1 50.8 51.8 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.7 9.3 0.0 48.1 50.3 8.1 8.7 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.2 9.1 0.0 48.9 50.5 8.8 9.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.6 -0.2 43.1 45.6 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.7 12.0 0.6 69.0 63.4 10.3 10.7 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.9 9.8 0.1 51.4 52.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.1 12.0 -0.4 37.7 40.8 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.0 8.6 -0.1 45.3 47.8 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.9 9.8 12.4 -0.3 41.9 42.7 9.7 10.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.0 6.8 -0.3 38.2 44.7 5.0 5.5 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.2 12.2 0.1 51.7 51.5 9.5 10.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 9.0 9.0 11.9 -0.5 34.8 38.1 8.8 9.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.7 12.3 -0.2 43.9 45.1 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.3 9.9 10.6 0.0 50.1 50.4 9.3 9.9 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.4 11.8 -0.1 47.1 48.9 9.6 10.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 8.8 0.0 47.4 49.8 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.9 12.3 -0.1 47.0 48.7 9.8 11.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.5 10.8 0.4 62.0 59.3 8.4 9.0 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.0 7.9 -0.2 39.5 44.7 7.8 8.3 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.6 -0.3 43.3 44.3 10.0 11.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------