***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.9 11.3 0.0 52.5 50.5 7.7 9.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.3 10.7 -0.2 48.3 47.4 8.7 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.8 11.3 0.0 53.5 50.9 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.8 8.8 0.3 53.0 53.0 6.1 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.2 9.0 0.2 50.3 52.3 7.7 9.2 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.5 7.3 0.4 53.0 54.2 6.6 8.4 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.4 10.8 -0.2 49.9 47.9 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.5 7.0 0.1 45.5 50.1 2.6 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.2 9.3 0.2 52.6 52.2 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.6 8.9 7.7 0.1 47.6 50.4 8.0 9.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.1 8.3 0.1 47.6 51.2 7.6 9.3 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.9 7.6 0.1 47.6 50.9 6.6 8.1 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 7.3 0.1 48.4 50.3 7.1 8.6 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 8.9 -0.1 50.2 48.6 8.9 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.5 9.9 0.4 55.9 55.5 8.8 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.9 7.9 0.2 50.5 51.4 8.1 9.8 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.5 10.5 -0.3 47.1 47.0 8.6 9.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.3 6.9 0.1 47.4 49.8 7.0 8.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.3 10.8 -0.2 49.1 47.9 8.7 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.7 5.2 0.0 46.8 48.8 2.7 5.0 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.5 10.5 0.2 52.5 52.0 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 10.3 -0.3 46.8 46.5 7.7 8.5 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 10.7 -0.1 51.2 48.9 8.2 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.9 8.7 0.0 50.8 50.4 8.3 8.9 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.1 10.0 0.1 52.3 51.2 9.1 10.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.1 7.1 0.0 48.7 49.7 7.1 9.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.5 10.6 0.0 53.2 50.9 9.0 10.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.0 9.0 0.4 54.5 54.2 7.5 8.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.2 6.4 0.0 47.2 49.4 6.4 7.4 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.6 11.0 -0.2 50.7 48.3 8.9 9.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------