***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 8.6 9.8 12.1 -0.4 44.7 44.3 9.4 9.9 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.1 11.7 -0.5 44.2 43.0 9.0 10.3 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.9 12.3 -0.2 48.3 46.5 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.8 7.0 9.7 -0.1 44.9 47.5 6.7 7.1 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 7.7 9.2 9.8 -0.1 44.0 46.2 7.8 9.7 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.4 0.2 49.7 50.1 7.2 8.4 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.9 11.9 -0.5 44.5 43.6 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 2.7 3.7 8.0 -0.1 42.9 47.3 3.3 3.9 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 8.7 9.7 10.1 -0.1 45.3 46.0 9.2 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 8.8 9.5 8.7 -0.2 43.1 46.1 9.0 9.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 7.9 9.1 9.2 -0.1 42.8 47.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.5 8.1 8.5 -0.1 43.4 47.6 7.4 8.7 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.2 8.8 8.1 -0.2 43.0 46.0 8.0 9.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 9.4 10.3 9.8 -0.4 45.2 43.1 9.9 10.3 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.7 11.0 0.2 51.0 50.9 9.2 10.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 9.1 10.1 8.8 -0.1 45.3 47.0 9.6 10.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.6 11.5 -0.6 43.7 42.8 9.2 9.8 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 7.6 8.3 7.8 -0.2 43.1 45.2 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.6 11.7 -0.5 45.1 43.6 9.3 10.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.9 4.1 6.0 -0.3 37.9 44.2 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 8.4 9.7 11.4 -0.2 45.7 45.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.4 8.8 11.3 -0.6 43.0 41.6 8.4 9.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.5 9.5 11.7 -0.3 46.5 45.0 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 8.7 9.7 9.8 -0.1 47.1 46.3 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.0 10.8 -0.4 44.2 44.8 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.9 7.9 -0.2 45.4 46.3 8.5 9.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.5 10.0 11.4 -0.5 43.6 43.7 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.5 10.0 0.1 47.8 49.1 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.3 7.6 7.2 -0.3 40.7 44.4 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.1 12.0 -0.5 45.2 43.9 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------