***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9.9 9.9 12.6 -1.1 32.3 34.5 9.9 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.9 12.0 -1.3 28.2 31.5 10.1 10.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.2 12.8 -1.0 32.6 35.2 12.2 12.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.4 7.7 10.3 -0.7 39.1 40.5 7.4 8.4 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.3 10.9 -0.7 36.9 39.3 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.6 8.7 -0.6 37.1 39.8 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.0 9.8 12.2 -1.3 30.0 32.3 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.0 4.5 8.5 -0.9 33.1 35.4 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.0 -0.7 38.1 39.4 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.3 -0.8 35.3 36.7 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.4 -0.7 36.8 39.0 9.6 10.6 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.4 -0.8 33.9 36.9 8.6 9.3 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.7 8.9 9.2 -0.9 33.8 36.9 8.9 10.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.6 10.6 -1.0 32.4 34.9 10.7 11.3 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.6 12.2 -0.1 48.8 47.7 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.6 9.9 -0.7 35.7 39.0 10.6 11.1 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 10.0 9.7 11.7 -1.4 28.0 30.3 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.5 9.8 8.6 -0.9 34.6 36.6 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.8 9.6 12.2 -1.2 29.6 32.4 9.9 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.6 6.7 -1.1 30.2 33.2 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.3 12.1 -0.8 36.6 37.3 10.2 10.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 8.8 9.1 11.8 -1.4 26.9 29.7 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 9.6 9.8 12.2 -1.1 31.7 34.2 9.8 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.1 10.6 -0.8 35.7 37.7 10.0 10.4 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.6 11.6 -1.1 33.2 35.5 10.6 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.5 8.7 -1.0 32.1 36.4 9.5 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 9.8 10.1 12.0 -1.2 32.5 34.9 10.2 11.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.5 10.9 -0.4 45.4 44.6 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.7 7.9 7.8 -1.0 30.7 34.0 8.1 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.0 12.4 -1.2 30.2 32.8 10.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------