***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.0 15.7 1.2 71.2 69.9 10.6 12.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 11.8 12.2 14.8 0.6 61.1 60.4 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 48 52 100 14.7 15.3 15.5 1.0 67.2 66.3 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.2 10.6 12.8 1.0 68.1 66.7 8.1 10.0 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 11.1 11.3 13.7 1.1 67.0 67.4 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.8 11.1 1.3 72.7 71.6 8.7 9.4 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.8 15.2 0.9 64.9 63.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 5.8 6.5 10.6 0.6 57.5 57.7 4.7 5.7 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 12.2 12.8 13.7 1.1 66.8 67.4 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 11.6 12.0 11.6 0.7 59.3 59.8 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.2 13.1 1.0 63.2 64.8 10.1 11.0 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 9.7 9.9 11.9 0.9 62.2 63.1 8.6 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.8 12.0 1.1 65.7 66.3 9.2 9.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.6 13.0 0.7 61.2 60.5 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 13.4 13.9 15.0 1.8 82.6 80.7 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 49 51 100 12.4 12.7 12.7 1.2 67.2 67.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 12.2 12.6 14.4 0.5 59.6 59.2 11.3 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 10.0 10.6 11.0 0.6 59.9 59.3 9.1 9.8 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.5 14.8 0.5 60.1 59.2 10.8 12.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.7 9.1 0.4 56.2 55.4 5.6 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 12.0 12.2 14.8 1.1 69.1 68.1 10.4 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 11.4 11.4 14.4 0.2 53.1 53.7 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.9 14.7 0.5 59.6 58.2 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 11.4 12.3 13.2 0.9 65.2 63.9 10.5 11.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.5 14.9 1.1 69.3 67.9 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.2 11.3 11.4 1.1 67.8 67.6 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.5 15.3 1.3 72.2 70.7 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 11.1 11.5 13.5 1.5 77.0 75.3 8.8 9.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 9.8 9.7 10.0 0.3 52.9 53.1 8.4 9.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 12.4 13.0 15.2 0.8 63.6 62.8 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------