***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 24.9 38.6 34.7 73.9 38.0 35.3 34.4 46.2 57.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 27.9 41.6 35.7 82.7 47.0 40.4 33.9 44.6 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 34.3 43.0 36.9 79.4 42.5 38.6 39.6 49.5 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 40.9 61.0 42.9 85.0 46.0 42.9 48.6 64.4 83.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 32.5 39.2 40.6 85.2 46.0 42.2 32.9 43.4 64.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.8 38.5 50.0 99.3 55.1 46.7 26.4 37.3 55.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 27.2 39.2 34.7 80.0 44.5 39.7 34.3 43.3 55.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 49.6 61.9 48.8 90.3 47.3 44.1 44.3 65.8 82.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 32.3 41.9 40.7 83.5 43.3 41.3 36.6 44.6 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 38.7 47.1 48.3 87.9 45.2 43.4 43.0 47.6 54.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 33.1 44.6 42.8 89.5 48.5 43.8 27.0 45.7 59.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.3 45.9 42.6 90.8 50.3 43.8 24.1 45.4 60.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 46.7 43.7 45.8 94.0 52.0 45.0 35.6 42.9 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 45.1 60.0 46.5 78.6 40.9 38.8 43.5 67.3 87.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 22.7 47.9 40.6 89.9 53.4 44.8 28.4 42.1 65.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.6 36.4 42.8 91.3 50.0 44.2 27.8 36.4 49.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 30.5 38.3 36.8 85.8 46.3 41.5 33.1 40.7 53.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 40.5 53.4 49.3 84.7 43.1 42.2 43.1 53.9 68.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 28.7 44.5 36.0 81.6 46.2 39.7 36.3 46.6 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 67.5 60.7 59.8 92.8 47.9 45.6 49.0 62.1 75.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 36.1 46.3 37.1 78.7 42.1 39.1 37.7 50.1 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.9 40.2 38.6 85.3 47.0 41.4 34.9 46.2 61.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 29.5 42.1 37.2 79.7 42.3 38.7 38.0 45.8 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 36.9 54.1 43.6 80.6 42.0 40.2 38.8 57.7 72.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 35.4 49.0 39.0 76.4 41.4 38.1 45.2 54.1 66.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.8 39.2 45.0 95.1 52.0 44.9 25.7 38.1 52.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 32.4 38.4 36.9 74.3 39.1 36.5 31.8 49.8 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 28.8 45.8 41.6 88.9 50.3 44.1 35.4 45.7 64.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 88.9 72.8 53.6 88.7 45.9 44.2 68.0 75.4 90.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 26.3 35.3 35.7 80.0 44.1 38.8 31.8 39.5 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------