***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.1 4.3 10.7 87.3 57.7 47.1 1.0 2.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.8 11.3 12.7 112.5 67.4 52.3 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.0 11.1 92.4 60.0 49.2 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 15.8 12.5 99.9 68.8 53.3 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 15.7 11.9 99.4 66.3 52.1 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.6 23.7 16.1 133.7 73.8 56.7 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.6 11.8 12.4 108.5 66.9 50.4 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 21.4 14.0 108.8 66.8 54.4 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.3 12.9 11.3 89.3 62.2 49.6 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 16.0 13.4 99.7 64.3 52.4 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.8 12.6 110.3 68.0 54.1 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.3 16.3 12.9 117.2 69.0 55.5 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.8 19.2 15.1 138.7 73.9 58.7 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.9 14.4 13.8 97.7 63.5 50.5 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 14.6 11.8 102.7 69.3 53.4 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 19.3 13.7 127.1 71.8 57.0 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.4 11.5 12.5 111.9 68.0 51.4 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.1 13.9 97.5 61.9 51.4 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 10.2 12.2 107.2 64.8 51.8 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.7 17.3 17.3 106.5 64.3 53.0 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.3 10.3 84.3 60.3 48.4 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 11.7 12.4 105.8 63.4 50.4 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.4 11.7 99.1 62.4 50.8 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.5 12.6 93.9 61.4 50.4 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.9 6.4 10.9 83.3 60.2 48.0 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.0 15.3 14.3 127.6 71.2 55.7 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.4 4.1 10.7 84.7 57.4 47.0 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.6 17.7 12.3 107.5 70.5 54.7 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 22.7 14.7 100.1 62.1 52.1 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 10.6 12.5 106.9 64.7 51.2 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------