***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 19.0 11.8 116.7 66.1 53.9 2.3 6.0 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.4 12.1 131.4 72.3 53.3 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.2 12.1 121.9 68.1 53.8 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 26.0 13.1 116.7 69.7 52.4 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.7 12.5 117.1 67.8 52.8 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.2 14.4 12.3 107.5 64.5 48.3 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 10.6 11.9 127.6 69.6 53.3 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 20.1 13.2 114.9 67.5 49.5 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 14.2 12.2 110.0 67.0 51.7 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 23.7 13.6 113.8 67.2 51.4 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.1 12.1 121.8 69.3 50.8 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.4 18.2 11.3 112.7 67.8 49.3 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 14.1 12.1 113.7 67.7 50.1 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 19.4 15.2 122.0 68.7 52.3 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 15.4 12.9 120.6 73.6 51.9 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.3 13.3 11.9 120.1 69.0 49.3 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.0 12.6 133.0 73.0 52.3 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 18.4 13.5 106.9 64.9 51.5 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.3 12.2 131.2 71.4 53.2 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 18.9 15.8 112.1 67.9 52.1 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 18.8 11.2 105.4 65.6 51.6 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.4 13.6 134.9 72.6 52.4 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.4 12.6 131.3 70.4 53.3 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.3 12.9 110.7 66.2 51.9 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.1 19.5 11.9 105.3 65.3 51.8 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.9 11.0 106.4 67.3 50.6 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 18.5 12.1 112.7 65.6 53.5 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 17.2 12.4 119.8 71.5 51.6 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.6 31.2 14.3 110.1 65.1 51.3 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.0 13.1 12.2 129.9 70.4 53.8 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------