***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.0 12.4 10.3 85.9 60.3 45.3 1.0 11.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.0 9.6 84.5 59.6 48.7 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.7 11.8 96.5 63.7 51.7 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.3 12.1 14.5 122.1 71.0 56.2 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.8 13.5 115.6 68.5 52.9 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.8 13.7 17.5 133.8 73.6 59.4 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.9 9.0 81.3 61.3 48.8 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 26.1 15.8 124.6 69.9 57.4 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.9 14.5 121.8 67.8 53.9 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.4 16.0 124.4 68.9 57.5 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.0 16.4 14.6 118.5 69.0 56.6 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.9 14.4 14.6 123.2 71.3 57.4 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.8 13.6 15.5 118.5 71.2 57.9 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.8 14.2 88.8 60.0 49.4 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.3 18.4 13.9 136.3 76.3 58.0 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.5 14.2 116.6 69.3 56.1 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.1 9.8 89.2 62.0 48.3 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.7 16.0 113.7 66.6 54.5 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.0 10.0 84.4 59.8 48.2 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 24.3 19.0 126.3 71.8 58.3 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.4 18.1 13.2 110.5 68.5 51.3 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.6 10.7 89.7 61.2 48.5 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.2 10.7 83.6 59.7 48.5 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 19.7 14.4 101.6 64.6 53.0 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 17.1 13.9 107.1 67.0 51.9 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.2 18.7 16.4 129.7 72.8 58.4 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.5 12.0 92.8 63.6 49.4 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.9 16.5 13.9 128.7 72.6 57.2 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.8 30.9 18.6 122.8 70.4 58.7 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.4 9.7 82.3 59.6 48.4 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------