***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.9 14.9 29.4 22.6 1.5 8.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 1.7 2.3 1.4 12.0 27.4 20.7 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.8 14.8 28.7 22.5 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.8 18.6 32.5 24.4 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 1.9 0.9 2.7 20.3 31.7 24.3 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.6 0.8 4.1 29.7 37.6 31.7 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 1.1 2.6 1.5 13.0 27.0 20.9 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.2 5.8 5.8 33.8 35.3 29.0 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.6 20.0 30.8 23.7 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 3.8 3.2 5.2 30.5 34.1 27.6 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 1.7 1.9 3.5 23.5 34.0 26.3 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 2.1 2.0 3.8 26.6 32.9 26.9 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.1 1.1 3.0 21.6 32.6 27.3 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.9 3.2 19.6 27.9 22.3 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 0.6 0.9 1.9 15.3 36.8 26.2 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.6 2.8 2.9 21.0 34.0 26.9 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 2.5 1.3 1.9 16.5 29.1 22.0 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 3.8 3.9 5.8 33.0 32.0 26.7 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.3 1.6 13.7 27.6 21.4 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 6.3 5.4 7.6 40.1 31.7 28.8 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.2 1.9 2.4 19.4 32.0 24.2 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.4 1.9 1.9 16.5 29.1 22.5 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 1.8 1.8 2.2 17.5 28.7 22.6 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.1 3.6 24.1 31.2 24.2 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.2 3.0 2.2 16.4 32.7 23.6 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 0.7 0.9 3.2 24.8 34.0 28.4 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.0 15.0 30.6 23.3 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.4 0.8 2.9 20.5 36.8 26.2 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 8.0 6.3 6.0 33.6 30.1 25.9 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 1.8 1.9 1.3 11.4 26.7 20.2 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------