***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.7 23.6 0.5 58.5 57.9 21.7 22.3 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.7 23.8 0.7 62.3 59.7 21.9 23.0 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.8 23.9 0.6 59.2 58.3 22.4 23.0 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.5 21.0 0.5 58.9 57.3 15.3 16.2 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.3 21.4 -0.1 46.2 47.8 22.6 23.4 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.4 19.4 -0.1 46.3 48.3 21.9 22.7 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.5 23.8 0.7 61.8 59.9 21.6 22.6 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.6 19.5 -0.2 43.3 45.7 11.9 13.0 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.2 21.9 -0.2 44.6 47.1 22.3 23.3 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.3 22.4 20.4 -0.2 43.4 46.4 21.8 22.9 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.3 21.3 -0.2 44.2 47.1 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.7 20.6 -0.2 43.6 46.3 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.7 20.5 -0.4 40.3 43.7 23.0 24.2 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.5 22.0 0.2 52.0 53.2 22.2 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 24.1 23.8 22.9 1.0 66.2 65.6 22.4 23.2 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.3 21.1 -0.1 46.8 48.6 23.4 24.5 25.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.5 23.3 0.6 59.2 58.0 21.4 22.1 23.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.7 20.0 -0.1 44.2 48.5 21.3 22.0 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.5 23.9 0.7 61.2 59.7 21.6 22.8 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.9 18.3 17.7 -0.2 43.3 45.6 18.1 18.6 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.2 22.7 -0.1 48.5 49.3 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.1 23.1 0.3 54.8 54.4 21.9 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.8 24.0 0.8 62.9 61.1 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.0 21.9 0.2 49.8 52.7 22.1 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.9 21.8 0.1 52.1 51.6 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 20.3 0.1 47.5 50.2 22.9 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.4 22.7 0.4 56.3 55.8 21.8 23.1 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.8 21.7 0.6 59.3 58.7 22.1 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.5 19.1 -0.2 42.0 46.7 17.1 18.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.5 23.9 0.7 62.3 60.1 21.6 22.8 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------