***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 19.8 21.6 21.1 0.0 52.4 51.1 20.2 21.4 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.6 21.1 0.0 51.8 50.4 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 20.3 21.4 21.5 0.1 53.0 51.4 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.3 14.8 19.0 0.1 52.9 51.8 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.8 19.4 -0.3 47.0 48.3 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 19.0 20.6 17.8 -0.1 50.0 49.3 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.0 21.4 21.0 0.0 51.7 50.4 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.5 18.0 -0.3 47.4 47.8 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 20.2 21.9 19.7 -0.4 46.7 47.7 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.5 18.7 -0.3 47.7 47.9 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.2 19.3 -0.3 47.6 48.2 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.1 18.9 -0.3 47.9 48.0 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 20.4 21.8 18.5 -0.4 46.9 46.9 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.2 19.7 -0.2 47.6 48.5 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.9 22.7 19.9 0.5 59.4 54.9 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.6 19.1 -0.2 47.4 48.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.8 20.6 -0.1 49.3 49.3 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 19.5 21.2 18.5 -0.2 47.9 48.5 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.4 21.3 0.1 53.2 51.0 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.6 17.7 16.1 -0.3 46.8 47.7 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.7 20.4 -0.3 47.8 48.4 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 20.5 21.7 20.6 -0.1 48.8 49.3 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.1 21.5 0.2 54.7 51.7 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.9 19.8 -0.1 49.4 49.3 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.9 19.3 -0.2 50.6 48.9 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.6 18.7 0.1 52.2 50.8 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 19.9 21.6 20.2 -0.1 51.3 50.2 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.9 19.4 0.2 54.0 52.6 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.9 17.6 -0.3 45.3 47.4 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.6 21.2 0.1 53.1 51.2 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------