***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 20.0 21.6 22.5 0.0 49.1 51.6 20.9 21.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.8 22.3 22.6 0.1 51.9 52.0 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.8 22.7 22.8 0.1 49.4 51.5 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 13.9 15.8 20.4 0.1 49.2 52.5 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 21.1 22.2 20.6 -0.4 42.6 48.4 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.0 21.7 18.8 -0.2 46.3 49.8 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.1 22.7 0.2 53.4 52.5 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.0 11.8 19.1 -0.4 42.9 48.3 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 20.5 21.9 20.9 -0.5 41.9 47.4 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.3 19.8 -0.4 42.5 48.1 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 20.7 22.2 20.5 -0.3 44.6 49.0 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.4 20.1 -0.4 43.5 48.4 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.0 22.8 19.5 -0.6 43.0 47.0 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 20.2 22.2 20.9 -0.2 46.4 49.7 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.2 21.4 0.5 55.6 55.6 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 21.5 23.3 20.3 -0.3 44.8 49.4 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.5 22.2 0.0 49.9 51.0 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 19.3 20.7 19.5 -0.3 42.0 48.8 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.2 22.0 22.8 0.2 51.8 52.2 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 15.7 17.1 17.2 -0.4 40.8 48.3 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 20.8 21.8 21.6 -0.4 42.9 47.6 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.2 22.0 -0.1 47.8 50.1 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 20.2 22.4 22.8 0.2 52.1 52.6 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.9 20.9 -0.2 44.6 49.5 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.8 20.6 -0.3 44.7 49.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.2 20.0 0.0 48.9 51.0 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.6 21.6 -0.1 48.0 50.9 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 21.2 23.3 20.8 0.2 51.3 53.5 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 14.6 16.1 18.6 -0.4 41.7 48.4 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.3 22.2 22.8 0.2 53.2 52.7 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------