***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 20.8 22.2 23.4 -0.6 42.2 45.6 21.8 22.8 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.5 23.7 -0.3 46.5 47.6 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 21.3 23.0 23.7 -0.5 43.2 46.8 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.4 20.7 -0.7 40.9 45.1 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.6 21.1 -1.3 36.0 39.6 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.2 19.1 -1.1 37.0 40.7 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.0 23.7 -0.3 46.1 47.5 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.7 12.4 19.1 -1.4 33.9 38.8 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.3 21.6 -1.3 36.7 38.9 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 21.6 22.0 20.0 -1.4 34.5 38.8 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.4 21.2 -1.3 36.6 40.0 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.0 20.3 -1.2 35.7 39.8 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.8 22.8 20.4 -1.4 32.3 38.4 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 21.3 22.6 21.8 -0.8 39.3 43.1 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.3 22.9 -0.2 48.4 50.1 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.4 20.9 -1.1 36.6 41.0 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 20.7 21.8 23.2 -0.4 46.7 46.4 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.4 19.4 -1.3 34.7 39.3 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.5 23.8 -0.3 47.1 47.8 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 17.1 17.9 17.2 -1.4 31.9 37.6 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.1 22.5 -1.2 37.0 40.1 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.1 22.4 23.0 -0.6 45.0 44.3 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.9 23.8 -0.1 48.0 48.9 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 21.2 22.3 21.6 -0.9 37.8 42.9 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.7 21.6 -1.1 36.9 41.1 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.5 20.2 -0.8 39.5 43.8 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.4 22.5 -0.7 40.1 44.0 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.7 21.5 -0.6 42.4 46.2 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 16.1 17.4 18.6 -1.4 32.8 38.3 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 21.1 22.4 23.8 -0.3 46.1 47.9 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------