***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 27.2 28.1 27.3 2.6 83.2 81.5 22.0 25.0 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 27.7 28.0 27.8 2.9 83.9 83.0 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 27.0 27.6 27.5 2.7 83.2 81.0 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 19.9 20.4 24.1 2.4 80.8 78.9 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 26.9 27.1 24.5 1.4 72.9 70.2 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 25.6 25.6 21.9 1.2 66.6 65.3 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 26.9 27.6 27.7 2.9 84.2 83.1 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.1 21.9 1.0 68.6 64.9 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 26.8 27.0 25.3 1.5 73.5 71.1 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 26.1 26.2 23.2 1.2 69.7 66.7 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 26.6 26.7 24.5 1.2 69.7 67.0 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 25.8 25.8 23.0 1.1 68.7 65.3 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 26.3 26.6 23.7 0.8 62.2 61.6 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 26.8 27.3 25.7 2.2 80.8 78.1 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 27.6 28.5 27.4 3.4 88.4 86.8 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.6 24.1 1.3 70.0 68.3 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 26.7 27.2 27.1 2.7 82.9 82.1 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.3 22.5 1.4 72.9 69.8 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 27.3 27.5 27.7 2.8 84.1 82.7 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 21.4 21.5 20.2 1.2 70.1 66.2 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 26.7 27.1 26.4 1.7 77.0 74.1 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 27.1 27.6 26.6 2.1 79.4 78.1 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 26.9 28.0 27.8 3.0 86.3 83.8 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 26.0 26.3 25.3 2.0 78.6 75.7 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 26.7 27.2 25.6 2.0 79.1 77.0 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 26.7 26.1 22.3 1.0 66.5 64.3 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 27.0 27.6 26.5 2.4 82.8 80.6 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 26.9 27.3 25.1 2.5 80.4 79.0 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 20.6 20.7 21.7 1.3 71.4 68.5 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 27.0 27.6 27.8 2.9 84.7 83.0 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------