***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.8 13.5 0.3 57.2 56.7 9.8 10.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.1 13.2 0.4 59.5 58.2 9.7 10.7 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.4 13.6 0.4 61.1 59.1 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.6 10.9 0.5 61.2 60.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.9 11.1 0.2 52.3 54.1 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.0 9.1 0.3 58.4 57.4 7.8 8.7 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.3 13.4 0.5 61.0 59.2 9.9 10.9 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.9 9.0 0.3 56.9 56.7 4.0 4.7 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.9 11.3 0.3 53.1 55.1 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.7 9.8 0.3 56.0 56.8 9.5 10.4 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.2 10.6 0.4 56.6 57.9 9.2 10.0 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.1 9.7 0.3 57.7 57.1 8.1 8.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.5 9.3 0.2 52.8 53.2 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.0 11.2 0.3 55.5 56.2 10.0 10.9 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.7 12.5 0.9 72.8 69.6 10.5 10.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.2 10.0 0.3 55.1 55.9 9.7 10.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.3 12.9 0.4 59.8 58.2 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.5 9.1 0.3 54.8 55.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.1 13.2 0.4 60.2 58.5 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.6 7.3 0.1 51.3 52.3 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.5 12.5 0.2 55.2 54.8 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.3 12.9 0.3 57.9 55.7 8.9 10.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.8 13.2 0.5 62.9 60.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.5 11.1 0.4 58.1 58.1 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.2 12.2 0.1 51.5 52.2 9.5 11.1 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 9.0 0.2 53.6 54.7 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.5 12.9 0.2 54.9 54.6 9.8 11.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 9.8 9.6 11.2 0.6 64.6 63.2 8.4 9.2 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.4 8.4 0.2 51.8 53.3 7.8 8.3 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.6 13.5 0.5 61.5 59.2 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------