***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.4 10.0 11.8 0.1 52.2 51.3 7.9 9.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 11.3 0.0 52.5 50.7 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.8 11.7 0.1 50.8 50.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.5 8.9 0.1 47.1 51.7 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.5 8.9 -0.1 44.9 49.4 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.1 7.3 -0.1 44.6 49.2 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.9 11.5 0.1 52.9 51.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.0 7.0 -0.2 44.8 48.1 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.8 9.2 -0.1 45.2 48.6 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.7 7.7 -0.2 44.0 47.8 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.8 8.2 -0.1 44.5 49.0 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.7 7.5 -0.1 45.8 49.0 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.5 7.2 -0.2 43.9 48.4 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.2 -0.1 49.5 48.4 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.6 10.1 10.1 0.3 51.9 54.0 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.5 7.8 -0.1 44.6 49.3 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 11.0 0.0 52.5 49.9 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.1 6.9 -0.2 43.4 47.5 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.8 11.3 0.0 51.9 50.4 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.5 5.2 -0.4 43.0 46.8 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.5 10.7 -0.1 48.5 49.6 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.2 10.9 -0.1 53.0 49.3 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.3 11.2 0.0 51.6 50.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.8 8.9 -0.1 47.8 48.8 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.2 10.3 -0.1 48.7 50.1 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 7.1 0.0 44.5 50.3 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.6 11.1 0.0 51.0 50.8 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.1 8.2 9.0 0.1 48.4 52.2 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 -0.3 44.0 46.7 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.4 11.6 0.1 52.2 51.4 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------