***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.9 13.9 0.1 50.9 52.4 10.3 10.9 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.1 13.5 0.1 51.2 50.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.0 14.1 0.3 55.6 53.9 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.1 11.4 0.1 54.4 52.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.5 11.7 0.0 51.8 51.5 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.5 9.5 0.2 55.2 53.4 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.5 13.6 0.0 51.1 50.5 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 9.5 0.2 53.9 53.7 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 11.9 0.1 52.8 53.4 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.3 10.4 0.2 53.4 53.7 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.2 11.3 0.3 58.1 54.7 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 10.4 0.3 56.2 54.7 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.3 10.1 0.2 54.8 52.9 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.6 11.7 0.2 53.2 53.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.4 13.3 0.8 67.5 61.7 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.6 10.8 0.3 57.6 53.8 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.5 13.1 -0.1 49.2 49.0 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.4 9.7 0.2 53.1 53.4 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.8 13.7 0.2 53.1 52.7 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.3 7.9 0.0 49.6 51.4 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 13.1 0.1 51.8 52.2 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 13.3 0.0 49.5 50.0 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.6 13.8 0.4 56.8 55.3 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.0 11.7 0.2 55.0 54.2 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.8 0.0 49.5 50.2 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.4 9.8 0.3 56.6 54.8 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.5 13.3 0.0 48.9 50.6 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.1 11.8 0.3 59.8 55.7 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 9.1 0.2 53.1 53.4 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 13.9 0.2 53.7 52.4 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------