***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 13.1 12.6 15.6 1.2 66.3 66.5 10.3 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.3 15.5 1.4 69.6 70.2 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.3 16.0 1.5 72.6 72.3 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.8 12.5 13.7 1.8 83.2 80.7 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.6 13.9 1.1 69.1 67.7 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.1 11.2 1.3 72.6 71.7 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.0 15.7 1.5 71.9 72.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.1 11.4 1.4 74.0 72.7 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.7 13.9 1.3 69.4 68.8 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 12.6 12.8 12.4 1.5 75.4 74.0 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.2 13.5 1.4 73.4 73.1 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.9 12.4 1.3 71.3 70.7 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 10.3 10.9 11.9 0.9 60.0 61.6 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 12.9 12.7 13.5 1.2 68.3 68.2 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 13.7 14.7 15.7 2.2 87.7 86.8 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 12.6 12.5 12.7 1.1 66.6 67.1 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 13.6 13.1 15.3 1.5 72.5 73.0 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.4 11.7 1.3 72.3 72.4 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.6 15.5 1.4 69.7 70.4 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 7.3 7.3 9.8 1.0 64.6 66.0 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.2 15.0 1.2 67.7 68.0 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.1 15.3 1.2 68.7 68.5 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 12.4 12.5 15.5 1.4 71.8 72.3 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.7 12.6 13.8 1.5 74.3 73.9 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.4 14.6 0.8 61.2 61.2 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 10.3 10.9 11.1 0.8 59.5 60.8 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 12.5 12.7 15.0 1.0 63.0 63.2 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 11.8 12.4 14.1 2.0 83.8 82.0 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 9.5 10.4 10.7 1.1 65.4 66.9 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 13.0 12.9 15.8 1.4 70.3 70.8 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------