***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.7 70.4 42.7 36.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 29.2 36.6 29.0 66.1 39.9 34.9 33.9 44.6 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 34.3 42.4 29.1 71.5 41.7 37.8 39.6 49.5 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 33.5 53.9 29.6 71.1 39.3 35.9 48.6 64.4 83.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 29.6 37.2 30.3 71.7 40.9 36.0 32.9 43.4 64.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 22.3 31.4 39.9 76.7 40.1 36.9 26.4 37.3 55.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 28.9 37.3 28.8 66.1 37.7 34.2 34.3 43.3 55.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 45.7 54.5 34.0 69.9 37.4 34.9 44.3 65.8 82.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 28.2 40.0 30.9 70.6 40.0 35.8 36.6 44.6 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 36.1 43.6 34.6 69.5 35.6 34.6 43.0 47.6 54.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 29.9 35.9 28.4 70.3 41.8 35.5 27.0 45.7 59.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 22.9 33.0 28.1 72.1 42.6 36.6 24.1 45.4 60.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 27.3 42.2 33.5 77.0 42.3 37.9 35.6 42.9 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 42.3 44.9 38.1 69.7 34.1 35.5 43.5 67.3 87.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 18.3 33.2 27.4 66.7 42.0 33.9 28.4 42.1 65.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 21.7 34.4 30.4 74.0 43.5 36.5 27.8 36.4 49.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 30.5 35.3 29.5 64.9 35.6 34.1 33.1 40.7 53.8 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 36.3 44.3 40.1 70.3 34.7 34.0 43.1 53.9 68.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 29.2 40.1 29.1 66.6 39.6 35.5 36.3 46.6 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 46.2 50.0 48.4 73.0 36.4 35.0 49.0 62.1 75.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 35.2 44.9 28.2 70.6 40.0 36.3 37.7 50.1 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.4 36.3 31.4 66.5 36.7 34.1 34.9 46.2 61.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 29.0 40.4 29.9 66.8 37.5 35.6 38.0 45.8 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 33.0 45.9 35.8 71.0 36.7 35.8 38.8 57.7 72.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 37.1 48.1 30.7 70.3 38.4 35.0 45.2 54.1 66.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 26.8 36.1 30.1 77.4 45.6 38.3 25.7 38.1 52.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 34.0 40.2 30.3 69.4 40.4 35.0 31.8 49.8 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 22.4 42.0 29.1 71.2 41.1 35.0 35.4 45.7 64.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 53.9 69.8 43.7 71.2 36.3 34.7 68.0 75.4 90.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 27.7 35.0 28.9 67.9 40.9 35.6 31.8 39.5 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------