***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 76.4 63.6 48.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 9.2 7.7 69.6 58.3 45.6 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.1 9.3 7.6 84.0 63.0 47.8 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 6.1 15.6 8.2 84.6 64.9 46.6 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.6 13.9 8.0 82.9 62.2 45.7 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.4 17.1 12.0 113.4 68.3 46.2 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 7.7 7.7 68.6 58.9 45.1 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.3 15.4 9.1 82.6 55.5 43.0 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.9 12.7 7.8 81.6 60.9 45.1 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.6 11.5 8.9 80.9 55.3 42.7 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.4 13.1 7.6 82.6 58.0 44.0 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.6 14.4 7.6 88.1 59.7 44.6 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.1 15.1 9.9 107.6 63.7 46.6 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.9 9.7 75.9 55.8 42.7 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.4 14.6 7.7 83.1 69.5 45.9 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 1.0 12.2 8.6 94.7 60.7 45.4 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.7 8.8 7.7 64.0 55.7 42.9 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 10.8 10.5 79.2 52.7 41.6 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.6 6.6 7.6 71.8 57.9 45.3 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 13.9 14.1 85.1 56.3 43.5 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.2 11.5 7.2 81.6 64.3 46.5 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.1 7.4 7.8 66.3 54.5 41.8 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.5 7.7 74.8 56.1 44.1 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.8 9.3 81.8 55.4 43.0 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.6 6.9 7.8 79.1 64.4 48.0 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.0 14.5 9.0 108.3 68.1 46.8 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.1 6.0 7.7 78.0 63.6 49.0 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.7 17.3 8.3 90.8 67.2 46.3 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 13.2 11.6 78.1 53.7 41.8 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.2 9.7 7.6 74.2 60.9 47.1 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------