***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.9 93.9 60.6 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.3 8.3 79.5 58.3 45.1 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.3 8.2 86.3 58.1 47.2 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.5 23.5 8.1 95.2 65.3 50.0 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.0 8.6 95.6 64.0 49.3 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.4 10.3 88.2 60.6 49.8 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.0 8.3 80.8 56.7 46.0 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.1 24.4 10.3 99.0 70.5 48.2 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.3 14.0 9.4 97.1 64.5 48.8 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.9 23.5 10.3 95.0 65.8 47.8 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.8 17.6 7.9 92.5 66.1 48.7 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.0 20.8 8.1 98.6 71.5 49.6 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.6 8.7 91.8 67.4 51.5 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.0 14.5 11.1 85.2 58.1 46.8 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.1 7.4 92.6 67.2 49.9 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.9 7.9 91.7 65.2 51.1 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.0 8.4 76.8 57.8 45.5 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.6 15.5 11.8 92.4 60.8 46.6 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.4 80.2 60.1 45.2 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.9 17.0 14.7 99.5 64.9 47.2 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.0 18.4 8.3 93.4 62.3 48.3 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.7 8.8 74.9 58.7 45.7 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.0 8.8 81.0 60.6 45.9 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.5 9.0 10.2 87.7 57.4 46.6 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.2 8.8 90.2 58.0 48.6 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.0 7.2 87.0 63.9 49.5 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 17.2 8.7 90.9 59.1 49.1 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.3 7.7 95.0 67.0 51.1 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 19.7 13.0 94.4 61.1 47.2 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.4 8.1 83.3 59.1 46.5 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------