***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.7 30.9 42.5 22.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.1 4.4 3.3 27.5 37.3 23.9 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 1.5 2.6 3.9 32.2 44.9 27.4 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 1.6 5.6 4.1 31.5 44.5 23.4 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 1.7 3.1 4.5 34.1 41.9 24.8 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 0.6 1.2 4.9 33.9 40.4 21.5 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.1 4.2 3.2 27.6 37.7 21.2 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 4.5 10.1 5.3 34.4 39.1 25.4 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.3 6.0 4.3 31.2 43.3 23.7 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 3.1 6.4 5.2 33.2 40.8 25.6 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.6 3.6 4.7 36.1 41.8 24.6 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.9 5.0 4.7 36.5 41.6 26.0 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 0.6 2.4 4.9 37.1 42.2 24.1 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.3 5.1 33.7 42.6 27.2 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 0.4 2.0 3.5 26.1 44.5 20.5 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 1.1 4.6 4.9 38.2 42.7 24.6 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 2.8 5.9 3.0 25.6 39.1 24.0 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 3.6 4.5 5.7 33.6 37.4 25.2 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.9 5.8 3.6 29.6 39.3 26.3 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 5.2 6.1 6.2 34.0 33.6 24.5 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.2 3.8 30.1 44.9 23.5 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 3.0 5.1 3.9 30.7 38.5 27.4 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.3 4.1 32.8 41.6 27.1 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.1 5.0 33.6 41.2 26.5 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.7 4.8 3.9 30.5 41.8 21.7 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 0.3 1.0 5.0 40.5 37.6 26.9 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 1.4 3.2 3.7 29.0 38.8 20.5 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 1.0 2.2 4.1 31.3 44.1 22.7 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 7.0 7.8 6.1 34.5 34.7 25.0 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.7 7.1 3.6 29.8 38.3 25.9 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------