***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 24.6 2.7 95.3 83.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 24.3 25.8 24.5 2.7 94.7 83.4 21.9 23.0 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 24.1 25.9 24.6 2.7 95.5 83.5 22.4 23.0 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 16.8 19.1 22.7 2.4 93.1 81.1 15.3 16.2 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 24.6 26.3 23.0 2.5 94.3 81.5 22.6 23.4 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 23.7 24.5 21.0 2.2 92.1 79.8 21.9 22.7 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 24.0 25.1 24.3 2.7 94.8 83.3 21.6 22.6 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 13.5 15.1 21.4 2.3 93.1 80.2 11.9 13.0 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 24.5 26.0 23.6 2.6 94.9 82.5 22.3 23.3 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 24.3 25.5 22.3 2.5 94.2 81.4 21.8 22.9 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 24.5 25.9 22.8 2.5 94.2 82.0 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 24.0 25.0 22.4 2.4 93.1 80.9 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 25.0 26.0 22.2 2.5 91.2 81.2 23.0 24.2 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 24.8 25.9 23.4 2.8 93.2 83.1 22.2 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 24.4 26.3 23.4 2.4 94.1 82.8 22.4 23.2 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 25.3 27.0 22.6 2.5 92.8 81.7 23.4 24.5 25.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 23.6 24.8 24.1 2.7 95.4 83.4 21.4 22.1 23.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 23.5 24.7 21.6 2.5 93.6 81.2 21.3 22.0 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 24.0 25.8 24.7 2.9 95.1 83.8 21.6 22.8 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 19.7 20.6 19.3 2.2 90.1 79.0 18.1 18.6 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 24.4 26.0 24.1 2.5 94.7 81.9 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 24.4 25.6 24.2 2.8 94.9 83.7 21.9 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 24.1 26.0 24.7 3.0 95.5 84.4 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 24.4 25.6 23.2 2.7 94.6 82.7 22.1 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 23.9 25.5 23.1 2.6 94.8 82.5 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 24.7 25.6 21.8 2.1 88.1 78.4 22.9 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 24.2 25.1 23.7 2.6 94.2 83.0 21.8 23.1 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 24.5 26.5 23.0 2.3 93.2 81.0 22.1 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 19.0 20.2 20.6 2.4 92.5 80.5 17.1 18.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 24.2 25.5 24.7 2.8 94.9 83.7 21.6 22.8 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------