***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 21.4 1.3 61.9 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 22.5 22.6 21.3 1.4 66.6 62.9 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 23.2 22.2 21.5 1.3 63.3 62.6 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.7 15.3 19.7 1.0 62.1 60.8 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 23.3 22.1 19.9 1.0 60.2 60.7 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.0 21.4 18.2 0.8 59.6 59.8 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 22.2 22.3 21.1 1.3 66.0 62.2 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.2 18.5 0.8 59.5 59.2 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.1 22.4 20.3 1.1 61.7 60.9 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 22.8 22.5 19.2 0.9 60.7 60.0 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 23.4 22.4 19.7 1.0 61.6 61.5 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.0 19.4 0.9 61.0 59.9 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 23.4 22.7 19.0 0.8 58.9 59.7 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 23.4 22.9 20.2 1.3 63.7 61.8 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 23.1 23.1 20.0 1.1 66.1 62.0 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 24.1 23.2 19.4 1.0 62.1 61.1 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 21.7 21.9 20.8 1.4 68.8 62.7 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 22.4 21.9 18.5 0.9 58.8 58.9 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 22.6 22.0 21.5 1.4 65.8 63.3 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.6 18.3 16.3 0.6 56.3 56.5 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 23.2 22.4 21.0 1.1 62.2 61.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 22.8 22.8 21.0 1.5 68.6 64.0 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 22.8 22.6 21.5 1.5 64.6 63.5 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 22.9 22.7 20.1 1.1 61.2 61.0 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 22.4 21.8 19.9 1.2 62.7 61.6 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 22.9 22.0 18.7 0.6 56.5 57.9 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 22.9 21.8 20.5 1.2 61.8 61.6 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 23.5 22.6 19.9 1.0 63.1 61.3 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.6 17.6 0.8 56.9 57.7 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 22.3 22.3 21.4 1.4 64.8 62.8 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------