***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 22.8 1.6 73.5 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 23.9 23.9 22.5 1.4 69.3 62.3 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.3 22.8 1.6 72.7 63.5 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.0 21.3 1.4 69.9 62.4 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 24.8 24.5 21.4 1.4 67.9 62.1 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.4 23.0 19.8 1.4 62.9 61.0 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 23.6 23.5 22.3 1.4 68.9 61.6 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 20.0 1.2 64.9 60.5 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 24.3 24.4 21.7 1.4 69.3 62.3 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 23.8 24.4 20.6 1.3 67.5 61.2 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 24.3 24.6 21.2 1.4 67.3 62.3 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.4 21.0 1.3 63.9 61.0 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 21.2 24.2 20.6 1.4 62.8 60.7 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.3 21.4 1.4 72.2 61.7 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.5 23.6 21.8 1.6 70.9 64.1 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.2 25.0 21.0 1.4 64.4 61.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.4 22.0 1.3 68.9 60.8 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.5 19.9 1.2 67.9 60.2 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 23.5 24.2 22.7 1.5 71.1 62.9 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.1 18.5 17.9 1.1 64.4 58.8 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.2 22.3 1.4 69.6 62.7 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.3 22.2 1.4 69.9 61.7 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 23.7 24.4 22.7 1.6 73.7 63.4 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.3 21.4 1.4 70.8 61.9 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 23.4 23.9 21.4 1.5 72.4 63.3 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.9 24.3 20.5 1.2 61.8 59.5 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 23.5 24.0 21.9 1.5 73.3 63.1 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.3 21.6 1.4 67.9 62.3 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.9 18.8 18.9 1.1 66.4 59.3 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 23.9 24.2 22.7 1.5 70.5 63.0 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------