***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9999.0 0.0 25.8 3.3 87.3 79.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 25.5 27.2 25.5 3.1 86.7 76.9 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 25.3 27.0 25.8 3.3 87.8 78.9 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 18.5 19.8 24.3 3.2 88.2 79.8 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 25.8 26.6 24.3 3.2 85.7 79.5 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 25.3 26.4 22.5 3.2 88.2 80.9 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 25.1 26.7 25.4 3.0 86.4 77.2 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 14.5 15.9 22.7 3.1 88.0 78.6 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 25.6 26.4 24.7 3.3 85.2 79.4 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 25.3 26.3 23.4 3.2 86.8 78.8 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 25.6 26.9 24.0 3.3 89.7 80.3 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 24.9 26.7 23.8 3.2 90.0 79.8 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 26.1 27.6 23.4 3.2 89.9 80.1 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 26.0 27.7 24.2 3.1 85.3 76.4 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 25.7 26.9 24.8 3.4 90.1 82.1 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 26.6 28.1 23.8 3.3 90.0 80.4 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 24.3 26.1 25.0 2.9 84.6 75.2 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 24.6 25.6 22.6 3.1 85.2 77.1 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 24.9 27.4 25.7 3.2 87.5 77.3 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 20.8 21.6 20.3 2.8 84.1 75.1 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 25.5 26.2 25.3 3.2 85.0 78.8 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 25.0 27.6 24.9 2.8 84.8 74.4 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 25.3 27.8 25.6 3.3 88.3 78.0 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 25.6 27.1 24.2 3.2 86.0 77.8 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 24.9 26.6 24.4 3.3 87.6 80.0 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 26.0 27.0 23.1 2.9 88.0 78.6 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 25.3 26.6 25.0 3.3 86.9 79.7 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 26.0 27.1 24.6 3.2 88.9 80.3 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 20.3 21.1 21.6 3.0 83.6 76.0 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 25.4 27.2 25.7 3.2 87.5 78.1 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------