***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 28.4 4.7 94.5 90.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 27.7 29.1 28.7 5.1 94.8 91.4 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 27.2 29.7 28.5 4.9 94.1 90.5 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 20.1 21.7 25.4 3.8 89.7 87.4 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 27.3 29.1 26.5 4.3 90.9 88.5 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 26.1 27.7 23.5 3.5 88.3 85.7 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 26.9 28.6 28.5 5.0 94.6 91.2 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.7 24.6 4.3 89.9 87.5 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 27.2 29.7 27.6 4.6 92.7 89.6 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 26.6 28.6 25.8 4.6 91.1 88.7 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 27.1 28.4 26.2 4.3 90.3 88.3 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 26.3 27.1 25.5 4.2 89.8 87.7 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 27.2 29.3 25.7 4.4 90.3 88.4 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 27.2 29.8 27.7 5.4 95.9 92.1 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 27.6 28.8 26.8 3.7 89.6 87.9 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 27.9 28.7 25.9 4.2 89.6 88.2 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 26.7 28.5 28.4 5.3 96.5 93.0 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 25.7 27.5 25.2 4.8 91.2 89.3 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 27.3 28.8 28.9 5.3 95.2 92.0 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 21.8 22.5 22.8 4.3 89.2 87.1 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 27.2 30.0 28.0 4.4 92.5 88.7 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 27.3 29.0 28.6 5.4 97.5 93.8 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 26.9 29.0 29.0 5.5 96.0 93.0 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 26.2 29.5 27.1 5.0 93.2 90.6 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 27.1 29.6 26.7 4.2 92.9 89.1 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 27.2 28.1 24.8 3.9 88.2 86.4 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 27.1 29.7 27.5 4.5 94.5 90.0 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 27.1 28.9 25.9 3.6 88.5 86.9 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 21.3 22.9 24.4 4.8 90.9 89.2 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 27.0 29.1 28.7 5.0 94.4 90.9 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------