***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 1.5 84.2 77.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.6 13.7 1.4 84.4 75.7 9.7 10.7 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 13.8 14.7 13.9 1.5 86.3 77.8 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 9.1 9.7 11.6 1.2 81.5 74.0 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 10.6 11.1 11.5 1.1 79.0 72.5 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 9.6 10.0 9.8 1.2 83.2 74.1 7.8 8.7 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.4 13.8 1.4 84.7 76.0 9.9 10.9 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.9 10.0 1.2 79.6 73.2 4.0 4.7 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.8 12.0 1.2 78.2 72.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.5 10.5 1.1 75.8 71.4 9.5 10.4 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 10.8 11.2 11.2 1.2 82.6 75.1 9.2 10.0 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 9.4 9.9 10.7 1.2 82.5 74.5 8.1 8.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.3 9.9 0.8 76.0 67.1 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.5 12.2 1.3 80.5 75.0 10.0 10.9 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.5 12.1 12.5 1.4 86.6 78.3 10.5 10.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 11.5 12.0 10.7 1.1 81.3 72.8 9.7 10.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 11.4 12.4 13.2 1.1 81.3 72.5 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.9 9.8 1.0 72.0 69.0 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 11.8 12.4 13.8 1.5 86.0 77.8 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.4 8.3 0.9 75.5 68.4 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.7 13.1 1.2 80.8 73.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.7 13.4 1.3 84.2 75.9 8.9 10.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 11.4 12.2 13.8 1.7 87.2 80.9 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.2 11.8 11.9 1.3 79.4 75.0 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.8 12.6 1.3 82.2 74.9 9.5 11.1 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.3 10.0 0.7 73.4 65.1 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.4 13.1 13.3 1.4 82.1 74.9 9.8 11.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.6 11.9 1.2 83.9 75.2 8.4 9.2 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.5 9.3 1.0 75.4 69.9 7.8 8.3 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.8 14.0 1.5 86.1 76.9 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------