***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 0.5 62.6 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.3 10.7 11.4 0.4 60.9 56.4 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.6 11.5 0.6 63.1 57.9 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 7.5 9.3 0.4 59.0 57.4 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.2 9.4 9.4 0.4 57.4 57.2 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 7.6 0.4 53.9 56.8 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.6 10.3 11.3 0.4 58.8 56.4 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.4 8.0 0.5 58.8 57.6 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.7 9.9 0.5 59.2 57.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.0 10.3 8.5 0.4 58.8 57.0 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.1 9.3 9.0 0.5 58.9 58.2 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.6 8.6 0.4 57.2 57.3 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.9 7.8 0.2 50.5 54.0 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.9 10.6 10.0 0.4 58.5 56.8 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.3 10.8 10.0 0.6 63.8 60.5 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.5 8.5 0.4 56.4 56.8 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.9 0.2 52.2 53.9 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.6 7.9 0.3 56.6 55.4 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.4 10.3 11.4 0.5 62.7 57.2 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.3 6.4 0.2 53.1 54.2 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.5 10.8 0.5 60.1 57.4 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.3 10.9 0.3 56.3 55.5 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.2 11.3 0.6 63.7 58.5 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.9 9.8 0.5 60.0 57.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.5 10.1 0.5 61.7 57.6 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.1 9.0 8.1 0.1 49.0 51.8 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.8 11.4 10.9 0.5 61.3 57.1 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.4 8.9 9.6 0.5 60.7 58.7 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.9 7.4 0.4 57.4 55.9 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.7 11.6 0.5 62.9 57.2 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------