***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.9 0.9 64.8 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.6 12.7 0.9 67.7 60.4 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.3 12.7 1.0 69.4 62.2 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.2 10.8 1.0 63.5 61.8 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.6 10.7 1.0 63.8 61.5 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.6 9.3 1.2 69.5 64.4 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.2 12.6 0.8 64.4 59.7 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.1 4.8 9.2 1.0 63.2 61.8 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.0 11.2 1.0 65.3 61.9 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 9.7 0.9 62.9 60.7 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.5 10.4 1.1 65.7 64.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.7 10.0 1.1 62.6 62.9 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.2 9.5 1.0 63.5 61.0 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.1 11.2 1.0 67.9 62.2 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.5 11.6 1.2 70.0 65.4 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.3 10.1 1.2 66.2 63.8 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.5 12.2 0.7 66.2 58.4 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.5 9.1 0.8 61.4 59.4 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.4 12.7 1.0 70.1 61.7 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.8 7.7 0.7 59.2 58.2 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.5 12.1 1.0 65.1 61.4 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.4 12.2 0.8 68.7 60.5 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.7 12.6 1.1 72.7 63.9 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.5 11.0 1.0 66.6 62.3 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.5 11.4 0.9 64.2 60.5 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.9 9.7 0.8 60.1 59.2 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.3 12.1 0.8 63.4 59.5 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.9 11.2 1.1 67.4 63.8 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.5 8.5 0.7 59.7 58.9 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.7 12.8 0.9 67.8 60.9 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------