***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 2.8 87.2 86.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 13.0 14.4 16.2 2.5 87.1 84.3 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 15.5 16.1 16.4 2.6 86.8 85.5 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 11.6 12.3 13.4 1.6 80.5 78.0 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 11.7 12.1 13.4 1.3 75.6 73.1 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.1 11.2 1.1 72.0 70.0 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 13.2 14.5 16.6 2.8 88.4 86.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 7.1 7.7 11.9 1.7 80.9 77.1 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.0 13.9 1.5 77.0 73.9 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 12.6 12.9 12.4 1.5 76.5 73.5 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.3 13.1 1.5 79.5 74.9 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.2 12.5 1.6 81.2 76.5 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.3 11.0 0.4 53.6 56.1 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 13.2 13.7 14.3 1.8 80.3 78.0 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 13.5 14.1 14.6 1.6 82.7 78.9 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 12.6 12.6 12.1 0.9 67.4 65.8 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 13.8 14.4 15.6 2.4 86.4 83.4 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 11.2 11.3 11.3 1.2 69.7 68.9 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 13.1 14.5 16.4 2.7 88.6 86.1 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.5 8.0 9.7 1.4 72.9 72.0 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 12.5 13.1 15.4 1.9 80.5 78.8 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 12.4 13.6 16.1 2.6 88.9 86.8 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 12.6 13.9 16.6 3.0 91.3 89.0 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 12.9 13.7 14.0 1.9 80.6 78.8 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 13.1 13.9 15.2 2.2 84.4 82.2 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.4 10.8 10.7 0.3 57.5 56.6 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 13.5 14.3 15.8 2.4 85.6 83.3 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 11.7 11.9 13.6 1.3 77.3 74.9 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.8 10.8 1.3 72.3 70.6 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 13.3 14.9 16.6 2.7 86.7 85.7 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------