***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 33.9 55.9 52.4 111.2 64.5 53.8 39.6 48.7 57.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 31.5 53.1 47.9 108.9 62.3 52.5 35.1 45.7 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 37.6 59.8 52.5 111.9 64.8 52.4 42.9 54.0 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 40.2 75.8 51.1 99.9 59.1 48.7 47.1 63.5 90.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 31.0 54.9 50.6 105.9 61.5 49.1 35.4 40.5 64.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 23.9 36.5 47.4 91.2 50.8 44.3 26.6 36.0 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 54.3 56.7 49.5 110.8 63.5 54.7 34.8 48.3 61.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 49.9 69.8 55.7 101.8 57.8 48.8 49.2 65.0 84.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 31.2 55.5 51.7 104.9 61.9 48.2 35.2 44.8 56.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 36.7 51.8 58.5 105.6 61.3 49.4 44.4 47.5 53.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 33.0 51.1 48.8 102.6 59.5 47.9 25.8 44.7 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.0 52.8 46.5 99.0 56.3 47.6 26.4 40.9 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 30.2 45.1 49.8 103.3 56.8 48.6 30.2 42.3 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 46.1 80.5 64.3 109.5 63.3 51.0 44.5 68.1 87.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 24.4 54.4 46.2 97.5 57.3 48.3 29.4 42.1 64.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 42.0 42.5 47.6 100.6 57.4 47.8 24.9 38.3 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 46.4 48.8 48.2 108.5 60.9 52.5 35.8 41.0 52.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 41.1 60.6 63.3 105.7 61.2 50.4 43.5 54.5 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 32.3 62.5 49.3 110.7 63.6 52.3 40.7 49.9 63.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 50.7 70.9 66.4 102.6 58.3 50.2 49.4 65.5 73.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 37.9 61.0 52.0 108.9 64.2 50.1 39.8 53.1 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 28.4 54.8 48.5 106.7 61.0 51.7 34.8 45.5 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 32.1 59.1 53.2 115.1 67.3 53.1 38.8 49.4 58.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 37.9 69.4 60.9 111.6 65.4 51.5 38.8 58.3 69.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 60.3 66.3 57.3 112.3 65.4 52.9 46.1 55.8 66.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.0 39.5 48.0 100.7 55.7 49.0 26.0 36.5 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 37.5 57.1 55.9 112.6 65.8 54.5 31.1 51.0 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 29.3 48.2 46.4 95.4 55.7 47.3 35.4 46.7 64.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 61.6 87.4 65.3 105.8 60.2 50.9 69.8 79.9 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 32.3 57.5 49.9 111.0 64.5 54.0 32.6 45.0 58.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------